Only 30 Titles left...time to speculate

Way too much college basketball to be watched to do a full stats post tonight. I plan on doing a good long post when we know titles 100-21. Instead I thought I would open up the comments to predictions and pontifications.

For the last few weeks I've been making list after list trying to narrow down the titles that will most likely show up in the top 25. In this post I will share my list and my reasoning. Please question my thinking, point out my omissions, berate my candor or share your own guesses below.

When I first emailed fuse #8 my top ten (see side panel) I included my initial guesses for the top ten (immediately after sending it I realized that I had left off one shoo-in title) here is exactly what I sent as my initial speculative top ten (not in any order):

"Westing Game, Charlotte's Web, Mixed up Files..., Dark is Rising, Bridge to Terabithia, Holes, Wrinkle in Time, Tuck Everlasting, Island of the Blue Dolphin (yuck), and Witch of Blackbird Pond (double yuck)".

So yeah I left off Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. I wish I could say that I speculated that the voters would split all the HP votes and none would make the top ten, but really I just forgot it.

It certainly appears that voters in most cases are going with the first of the series so HP#1 is top ten bound for sure.

I was happy to see Island of the Blue Dolphin appear relatively early at #50 and The Witch of Blackbird Pond come in at #41. These two titles are up there with my least favorite Newbery titles and I have never understood their appeal. Sign of the Beaver on the other hand just missed my personal top ten. I still can't believe that the Speare, the author of one of my favorite novels also wrote Bronze Bow (my least favorite medal winner) and Witch of Blackbird Pond (bottom ten as well). Proof again that authors get better with age, Speare was 75 when Sign of the Beaver was published! As for Island of the Blue Dolphin, I would just much rather read My Side of the Mountain/Hatchet followed by Hesse's too often ignored masterpiece The Music of Dolphins.

So two titles from my first speculative top 10 having already made appearances much higher than I guessed, now I can make some new predictions based on intuition and some trends we've seen in the 70 titles that have already appeared.

As stated above I think Sorcerer's Stone is in for sure. I also think Harriet the Spy will make it into the top ten. Here's why: while the 1990s are still leading the way with 14 titles on the list so far, the 1960s with only 8 titles is leading in first place votes (15). The 1990s even with six more titles only has 12 first place votes (as does the 2000s). So while lots of recent titles are making the list, the first place votes are skewing towards what I assume were the childhood favorite of the voters. Expect to see Harriet the Spy, A Wrinkle in Time and From the Mixed Up Files... garner lots of 1st place votes and make the top ten.

While we are on the childhood favorites, I don't think any explanation for Charlotte's Web making the top ten is necessary. It's the closest thing to a Where the Wild Things Are (huge consensus, few if any detractors) chapter book. I don't expect C-Webb to get the landslide victory Wild Things received last year, but its a sure bet for the top 3, if not the top spot.

Alright so for the new speculative top ten we have: Charlotte's Web, Harriet the Spy, Wrinkle in Time, From the Mixed Up Files..., and Sorcerer's Stone. Five down, five to go.

Anita Silvey's article from last winter (which i don't really agree with but does speak to the consensus tastes of book consumers) mentions two of the 1990s Newbery winners as worthy (as she sees it) of the award: Holes and The Giver. These two titles are read in classrooms all over the country every year and its must be because they are loved by the teachers assigning them. If a handful of said teachers are voting in this poll I would bet both titles make the top ten. Lowry's Number of Stars came in at #56 and Sachar's Sideways Stories appeared at #91. (just finished reading Sideways Stories to my 2nd graders last week, I hope to post about that experience at some point).

The 1970s had 3 titles between #100-45 (5% of the titles), in the last 14 titles announced (44-31) 4 1970s titles have emerged. That's 29% of the last 14 titles coming from the 1970s compared to just 5% of the first 56 titles coming from the 1970s. Early on I had a hunch that the 1970s would come on strong in the homestretch and now it appears they will. So with this in mind I don't think I am going out onto too much of a limb to wager that both The Westing Game and Bridge to Terabithia should find their way into the top 10. Both books are classics beyond compare. Our new Ambassador's Great Gilly Hopkins made it to #55 on the poll and I don't expect Terabithia to suffer too much Paterson vote splitting. Westing Game isn't likely to suffer any vote splitting, as much fun as Figgs & Phantoms, Leon (I Mean Noel) and Tattooed Potato are, I expect Raskin lovers to be strategic enough to vote for Westing Game over her other works to ensure her rightful place near the very top of the children's literature pantheon.

Let's recap again: Charlotte's Web, Harriet the Spy, Wrinkle in Time, From the Mixed Up Files..., Sorcerer's Stone, The Giver, Holes, Bridge to Terabithia, and The Westing Game.

One more title makes ten.

I don't think enough guys voted to get place Dark is Rising into the top ten (it just not Jonathan Hunt's year is it? first Claudette Colvin has to settle for an Honor and now Dark is Rising is left out of the top ten, in this case however I share his pain). I thought Charlie and the Chocolate Factory might be top ten material but with James and the Giant Peach appearing today at 33 I now think Charlie will be showing up sooner rather than later, vote splitting was inevitable with Dahl (looks like my favorite, Matilda won't even make the top 100).

Tuck Everlasting has its fans (lots of them), but it also has its detractors, top ten books need not only lots of 1st and 2nd place votes, but also a bunch of 8th and 9th place votes given by voters who feel it's their responsibility to include not only personal favorites but the canonical/significant titles they like and appreciate but don't love [see Millions of Cats in last year's picture book poll]. I see Tuck getting lots of love but I don't see its detractors giving it any "I don't LOVE it but I know it's great votes".

So will an über-classics (pre 1920s titles) make the top ten? I guess Alice in Wonderland has the best shot, but my gut tells me Alice, along with Anne and Jo will get lots of votes (likely of the low point variety), but not enough to make the top 10.

So far series books make up 61% of the top 100 (note: I don't consider Mrs. Frisby and the Rats of NIMH as part of a series b/c O'Brien did not write the sequels). Of the 9 titles in the speculative list so far 3 books are part of proper series and two others (Holes and Harriet) have sequels of sorts (secondary characters in a shared universe). If the top ten follows what we've already seen I would guess that the final book in the speculative top ten will be a series book.

Looking again at the 9 titles above, seven have female authors. 63% of the authors of titles 100-31 are female but this number has been trending downward recently. I would expect another male author to fill the final spot in the top ten.

Additionally, only one of these titles was published outside of the United States. Whereas almost 25% of the titles revealed so far a were published outside of the United States. Conclusion: our top ten needs another international title, most likely British.

So to recap: we need a series book, written by a male, originally published in the United Kingdom. Have you figured it out yet?

The last final title will undoubtedly be C.S. Lewis' The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Making my guesses for the top ten novels: (in no particular order)

Charlotte's Web

Harriet the Spy

A Wrinkle in Time

From the Mixed Up Files of Mrs. Basil E. Frankweiler

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone

The Giver

Holes

Bridge to Terabithia

The Westing Game

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

I am certainly wrong about at least a couple of these picks (for one they are way too newbery heavy), I can't wait to see which ones.

The next 20? Below is the list of potentials I'm working from, what should I have omitted, what did I forget?

Maniac Magee

Tuck Everlasting

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Hatchet

Anne of Green Gables

Little Princess

Alice in Wonderland

Little Women

Dark is Rising

Because of Winn-Dixie

Phantom Tollbooth

Stuart Little

The Hobbit

Little Prince

Secret Garden

Little House in the Big Woods

Tale of Despereaux

Voyages of Doctor Doolittle

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows (my favorite HP but isn't this too YA)

So yeah I don't think HP #6 will make the top 100. Also my ignorance of all things Little House (haven't read any) prevents me from speculating on which other titles might make the list will voters but the give votes to Big Woods b/c its the first of the series or is there a later title fans consider the best?

Sad thoughts: Steig won't have a book in the top 100, either will Daniel Manus Pinkwater, John Bellairs, Jack Gantos or E. Nesbit.

Now please tell me how wrong I am, what I left out, or which authors or titles you are mourning.

Also if you are planning on submitting a Battle of the Books Bracket (and why wouldn't you be?) be sure to do so by Sunday night as I will close the bracket form Sunday (3/14) around 11:00 pm EST as winner of the first match will be announced Monday. Click here to fill out bracket the form with your picks.